I just came across this series of maps of territorial control in Somalia in my map archive. Note that these maps are based largely on James Dahl’s map series on territorial control in Somalia and on UN maps of displacement, combined with my own research on conflict events. Forgive me if I mix my Somali and English while transliterating.
Clearly, any map purporting to show areas of control in Somalia is likely oversimplified; alliances are constantly shifting, and multiple insurgencies may exist within an area shown to be under control of a certain force. However, this represents an attempt to map the story of the aftermath of Ethiopia’s invasion in 2006, and show how foreign intervention may have affected the growth of extremist insurgency, specifically in southern Somalia. “Unaligned” territories reflect those areas where it was unclear who was supported or in control. This is a work in progress, so please provide feedback if there are inaccuracies or changes that need to be made.
2007-2009: The Aftermath of the Ethiopian Invasion
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TFG/Ethiopian alliance controls most of southern Somalia. Conflict in Mogadishu and scattered opposition near Ethiopian border. ICU continues scattered fighting in far south.
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Gradual withdrawal of Ethiopian troops. Resurgence of Islamist opposition.
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Ethiopians withdraw from Guriceel, ICU gains ground, takes Kismaayo and much of Mogadishu.
Xisbul Islaam/al-Shabaab alliance emerges in Hiraan.
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Insurgents shift focus away from Mogadishu and seek to make inroads with neutral clans.
Abu Mansoor and other warlords desert TFG alliance.
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According to Western sources, Al-Qaeda in Somalia emerges as an active player around this point, provoking U.S. airstrikes. Independent clans rise up against foreign intervention.
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Mujahideen Youth Movement, Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS) emerge. Some formerly TFG-allied clans turn to insurgency after U.S. and Ethiopian strikes.
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In the wake of U.S. drone strikes, TFG and allies lose ground.
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Displacements along Beledweyne road as ARS forces move northward.
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TFG almost expelled almost completely except for a small foothold in Baydhabo (Baidoa).
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Ethiopians try again at Beledweyne.
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Ethiopian push.
Ahlu Sunna wal-Jumca coalesces in central Somalia
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Islamist forces join under ICU and MYM leadership.
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Ethiopians withdraw
December 2008: Cabdullahi Yuusuf Axmed resigns as president of TFG.
2009-2010: The TFG strikes an alliance and begins an offensive
As the TFG in exile brokered a truce with ASWJ, ARS, and ICU elements, they began to gain support and nominal control over parts of the country. Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Axmed, formerly of ARS, was elected TFG President. Along with AU forces, the TFG launched an offensive against the now divided Al Shabaab and Xisbul Islaam forces in southern Somalia.
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Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Axmed, leader of ARS, joins TFG and becomes president of moderate Islamist coalition, gaining support in central and northern Somalia (probably not as much support as the map suggests, but these are general areas of support, broadly speaking).
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Al-Shabaab gains strength, splits from Xisbul Islaam.
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Again, please let me know if there are corrections to be made. This is an ongoing initiative to map territorial control in Somalia, part of a more comprehensive effort at creating conflict maps of Somalia.